Forecast the development trend of automotive electrical and electronic industry

1. The electronic content tends to be saturated. According to some automobile manufacturers' estimation, the average cost of electric, electronic components and software of non hybrid electric vehicles will not increase any more, and it is likely to maintain at 20% to 25% of the vehicle cost. Therefore, the growth of the market for such parts can only rely on the increase in the number of vehicles, coupled with the increase in the average retail price of light vehicles. It is assumed that these vehicle price increases can be converted into the cost budget of power and electronic components. However, the growth of electronic and electrical content will also be restrained by the rising cost of non electronic raw materials and the popularity of Tata motor's $2500 nano super economy car, which we identified as extremely important and began to elaborate about three years ago.

2. Software has become the key advantage of automobile competition. As an important element of automobile system, software is developing vigorously. In engine controller alone, software content doubles every year. Therefore, automobile manufacturers and suppliers with good architecture and integrated software development tool chain will gain competitive advantages. Those who can do well in software development can use fewer engineers to bring new and functional products to the market, and keep the warranty cost low.

3. The impact of automotive open system architecture although most of the world's automotive manufacturers are gradually adopting the automotive open system standard, it will still take at least 10 years for enough vehicles to implement the standard to have a significant impact on the market.

But so far, all the technical standards adopted by the automotive electronics industry have not had as much impact as the standards for automotive open system architecture. Software architecture standards will greatly reduce the cost of the system and improve its quality.

Automotive manufacturers have demonstrated that the automotive open system architecture standard can be reused in multi platform software and multiple vehicles. A suitable software application will not need to be redesigned and customized in a new application and usage time at a time, which will save development time and a lot of money. Each basic automotive open system architecture software cornerstone will be commercialized and will be electronic hardware, including some operating systems of microcontrollers. Software will be sold separately from the hardware as opposed to the automotive open system architecture standard.

4. Open platform will cannibalize the market of automobile entertainment information system.

There are currently three different paths to open infotainment systems: Microsoft's automated cars; the genivi alliance that BMW, GM and PSA are working on; and a third road being developed by Audi. What are the three solutions of driving and driving are the same as the standards of driving open system architecture: there is an opportunity to greatly reduce the cost and improve the quality of software. Instead of relying on vertical integration of suppliers and processing the entire customized infotainment system, automobile manufacturers and system integrators will be able to purchase the design of their applications from various sources to adapt to the standard platform software component classes.

5. Fuel economy

More than one million people die on highways in the world every year, so the development of active systems has received a lot of attention and appropriate investment. Autonomous system automatic steering or braking to avoid accidents is particularly optimistic, driver monitoring system is also very promising. However, with the soaring oil price and the difficult task of curbing carbon dioxide emissions on the road, fuel efficiency has become the main problem of industrial development. In the future, there will be more dual clutch transmissions, as well as many lean and turbocharged gasoline direct injection engines, which shut down the engine when the vehicle is stationary and restart immediately when the vehicle accelerates.